The problem with Trump’s thought process here is that the left wing of the Democratic Party already knows who Biden is and is voting for him in large numbers anyway.
Indeed, Biden’s doing better among liberal voters than Hillary Clinton did four years ago. An examination of CNN polling finds that Biden has led Trump by an average of 84 points among liberal voters since Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders dropped out of the presidential race in April. Clinton’s average lead over Trump was just 70 points after the 2016 primary season concluded.
When we drill down deeper, we see Biden is doing even better among very liberal voters. Biden’s been ahead of Trump by an astounding 93% to 4% margin in CNN polling.
Perhaps what’s most interesting, however, is that Biden’s not as popular among very liberal voters as you might expect given that huge lead.
His net favorability (favorable – unfavorable) rating has averaged +47 points among very liberal voters in an aggregate of CNN’s May, August, September and October polls. Now, +47 points is obviously still positive, but it’s more than 40 points lower than Biden’s average lead over Trump with these very same voters.
For reference, Biden’s net favorability rating with somewhat liberal voters was +63 points in those same polls. His higher net favorability with somewhat liberal voters comes even as his lead with them against Trump has been about 10 points lower than it is with very liberal voters.
Trump’s own net favorability with very liberal voters has averaged -93 points. That’s 140 points worse than Biden’s.
Not surprisingly, Biden’s very liberal supporters have been the most likely to say they are voting against Trump rather than for Biden.
Of course, Trump probably knows he has no chance of winning over any real chunk of these very liberal voters. His best hope is for them to stay home. That seems unlikely to occur.
Among voters at large, 89% rated themselves a 10 on average. Among very liberal voters, 95% rated themselves a 10 on average.
In other words, very liberals were more likely than average to say they were going to turn out to vote than the average voter.
My guess is that nothing Trump has done to divide the left and Biden is going to change that.